Improving Nursing Workforce Forecasts: Comparative Analysis Of the Cohort Supply Model and the Health Workforce Simulation Model


David I. Auerbach, Aprita Chattopadhyay, George Zangaro, Douglas O. Staiger, Peter I. Buerhaus




Forecast models can help policymakers, educators, and others to anticipate and take action to forestall or mitigate, surpluses or shortages of key healthcare providers. Confusion and uncertainty over forecasts of registered nurse (RN) supply, demand, and shortages is particularly unsettling to organizations, educators, and public policymakers. Two of the leading forecasters of the RN workforce jointly convened a meeting of the nation's experts on modeling the supply and demand for nurses to better understand and reconcile underlying model differences, and discuss communication, messaging, and other strategies around workforce forecasts. Key details of two supply forecasting models the Cohort supply model and the Health Workforce Simulation Model are discussed. A comparative analysis, key factors that workforce analysts should monitor to anticipate changes in the future size of the nation's RN workforce, and recommendations for how the two forecast models can be modified are presented.



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