Author

Andrew J. Hansen

Abstract

The goal of the work is to assess the vulnerability of forest and grassland vegetation to climate change and drought in the greater ecosystems centered on public and Native American Lands across the NC CSC domain. Objectives are as follows.
1. Quantify change in the spatial patterns of natural cover types as influence by land use intensification for 2000 to present and projected to 2100.
2. Summarize the responses ecological processes to past (1950-present) and projected (2010-2100) climate change.
3. Develop species habitat distribution models for dominant forest / shrub species and project species habitat suitability under IPCC climate scenarios.
4. Statistically relate grassland phenology to climate, soils, and landform and project potential changes in grassland phenology under IPCC climate scenarios.
5. Synthesize the results from Objectives 1-3 in the form of vulnerability assessments for major greater wildland ecosystems in the NC CSC domain.
The study area includes the forest, shrubland, and grassland cover types across the NC CSC domain. The spatial units for analysis include the Greater Wildland Ecosystems centered on federal and Native American lands and EPA Type III ecoregions. Objective 1 will summarize the responses ecological processes to past (1950-present) and projected (2010-2100) climate change using PRISM data and IPCC CMIP 5 climate projections. These will be inputs to the TOPS ecological model to project snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and gross primary productivity. Objective 2 will develop species habitat distribution models for dominant forest / shrub species and project species habitat suitability under IPCC climate scenarios. Forest Inventory and Analysis data will be used to develop statistical models using the SAHM software and used to project tree species habitat suitability under future climate scenarios. Objective 3 will use MODIS NDVI data to develop statistical models of grassland phenology based on climate, soils, and landform and project potential changes in grassland phenology under IPCC climate scenarios. Objective 4 will synthesize the results from Objectives 1-3 in the form of vulnerability assessments for major Greater Wildland Ecosystems in the NC CSC domain.