Ecological Condition of US National Parks
Enhancing Decision Support Through Monitoring, Analysis, and Forecasting
Andrew Hansen, Nate Piekielek, Corey Davis, Jessica Haas, David Theobald, John Gross, Bill Monahan, Tom Olliff, and Steve Running
NPS I&M Program Staff from the Eastern Rivers and Mountains, Greater Yellowstone Regional, Rocky Mountain, and Sierra Nevada Networks
Hansen, A.J., Piekielek, N., Davis, C., Haas, J., Theobald, D., Gross, J., Monahan, W., Olliff, T., Running, S., 2014. Exposure of U.S. National Parks to land use and climate change 1900-2100, Ecological Applications, 24(3), pp. 484-502. .pdf
Hansen, A.J., N. Piekielek, C. Davis, J. Haas, D. Theobald, J. Gross, W. Monahan, S. Running. In press. Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100. Ecological Applications. . http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-0905.1 OR .pdf
Hansen, A. J., C. Davis, N. B. Piekielek, J. Gross, D. Theobald, S. Goetz, F. Melton, R. DeFries. 2011. Delineating the ecosystems containing protected areas for monitoring and management. BioScience 61(5) 363-373. PDF
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover pose one of the foremost threats to resources in U.S. National Parks. To track in ecological condition, the US National Park Service has initiated a decision support system within the new NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (NPS I&M). The goal of this project is to increase the effectiveness of the NPS I&M DSS by the delivery, analysis, forecasting, and display of NASA ESS data, models, and science results. We will collaborate with the NPS to:
- Select landscape-level indicators of NPS “vital signs” and identify the boundaries of the greater park ecosystem appropriate for these indicators.
- Establish procedures to directly incorporate existing products from NASA-sponsored Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) and other sources.
- Add value to these products for NPS management by using ecological knowledge to guide the analysis and portrayal of changes in land use/cover, climate, ecosystem productivity, hydrology, and biodiversity, and to forecast likely ecosystem changes given alternative decision scenarios.
- Integrate the data acquisition, analysis, forecasting, and display of these ecosystem changes into the NPS I&M’s DSS framework.