Info: Due dates for homework will be announced in class when assigned.

Subject

  1. Physical mechanisms: parts 1, 2, 3, 4
  2. Ecological consequences:
    • Primary: distribution, abundance, phenology
    • Secondary: change in community structure & function - new interspecific interactions, lost interactions,  different phenological changes at different trophic levels causing food web disruptions
  3. NOAA - 800,000 year summary  of atmospheric CO2 record 
  4. NASA - global temperature anomaly for 5 year intervals from1880 to  2007
  5. Global mean temperature time series from NASA
  6. GCM structure and animation of GCM output and feedbacks that GCMs must incorporate.  Understanding emissions scenarios
  7. Summary of observed responses to current climate change and climate envelope modelling to project future responses

Reading

Climate Change

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.

Ecological Responses to Climate Change

  1. Parmesan & Yohe 2003.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.  Nature 421: 37-42.  (review of observed responses)
  2. Examples of observed responses: 
    1. Fitter & Fitter 2002 - plant phenology (see fig 1 & table 1)
    2. Diamond et al 2011 - butterfly phenology
  3. Burkle et al. 2013.  Plant-pollinator interactions over 120 years: loss of species, co-occurrence, and function. Science 339: 1611-1615.
  4. Edwards & Richardson 2004. Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch.  Nature 430: 881-884
  5. Examples of projections using the climate envelope approach:
    1. Reusch et al.  2102. Projected Climate-Induced Habitat Loss for Salmonids in the John Day River Network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biology 26:873-882. (an excellent example of the climate envelope modellig approach for three species)
  6. Marine fish - interaction of climate effects on body size and extinction risk, accounting for changes in distribution
  7. Thomas et al. 2004.  Extinction risk from climate change,  Nature 427: 145-148. (review of projections using climate envelope modelling and SA curves)

Exam 2

UPDATED: EXAM 2 will be Wednesday October 30

 

  1. Study Guide. Broad topics are:
  2. Fitting regression models appropriate to a data set, and interpreting results of that analysis.
  3. Mechanisms of anthropogenic climate change
    • properties of GH gasses
    • disruption of carbon cycle
    • effects on balance of incoming and outgoing EM radiation
  4. Ecological responses to climate change:
    • distribution
    • abundance
    • phenology
    • changes in community structure, trophic mismatch
  5. The essay questions will be broad, show-what-you-know style questions.  The best answers will:
    • be well organized and well written
    • be clear and direct 
    • include supporting examples from class or the reading
    • include verbal, graphical and algebraic explanations when possible